CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2021-02-20T11:00:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2021 Feb 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2803 (N20, L=277) decayed to plage.
New Region 2804 (N20E02, Bxo/Beta) quietly emerged on the disk this
period. No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

A filament eruption was observed near mid-day on 20 Feb in the SE
quadrant. A subsequent partial-halo CME signature followed the eruption,
first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 20/1200 UTC.
Analysis and modeling of the event suggested the bulk of the plasma
headed downstream of Earth; however, a glancing blow from the periphery
of the CME is likely on 23-24 Feb.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 22-24 Feb.


Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 6,702 pfu observed at 21/1505 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 22-24 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained enhanced due to negative polarity CH HSS
influence. Solar wind speeds averaged about 575 km/s with several peaks
near 620 km/s. Total field generally ranged from 4-6 nT while the Bz
component varied between +4 nT to -6 nT. The phi angle remained in a
predominately negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced through 24 Feb. CH HSS
influences are expected persist, though gradually wane, through 22 Feb.
Conditions are expected to become more enhanced on 23-24 Feb due to the
possible arrival of the 20 Feb CME.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS
influences.

.Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels,
with isolated active intervals, on 22 Feb as CH HSS influences persist.
Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storm
conditions, are likely on 23-24 Feb, all due to potential effects from
the 20 Feb CME.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2021 Feb 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 22-Feb 24 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 22-Feb 24 2021

            Feb 22     Feb 23     Feb 24
00-03UT        4          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        4          3          5 (G1)
06-09UT        3          2          4     
09-12UT        3          3          4     
12-15UT        2          2          3     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        1          4          2     
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     3     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 23 and 24 Feb due
to possible CME effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2021

              Feb 22  Feb 23  Feb 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2021

              Feb 22        Feb 23        Feb 24
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Run time and prediction arrival take from the simulation at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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